Updated Tue Nov 3, 12:30 PM ET · sample site

College football · every FBS game Fri & Sat

One pick per game: moneyline or spread, whichever the model rates as better value. Prices in cents (= implied %), Polymarket ask where listed, otherwise the best sportsbook price. Model is new and untested, so confidence is capped at 3/5 until it has a graded record. Lines as of 2026-11-03 11:42 ET.

Friday Nov 6 · 5 games

Virginia Tech @ SMUFri 7:00 PM ET
VT ML
Price34¢
Model34.8%
Edge+1.3 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model VT by -6.1, market -6.0; blended -6.0. Net PPA +0.13 vs +0.16.

Price source: Polymarket · market line SMU -6

South Florida @ East CarolinaFri 7:30 PM ET
USF +2.5
Price51¢
Model57.1%
Edge+6.1 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model USF by +3.5, market -1.5; blended +0.3. Net PPA +0.10 vs +0.04.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ECU -1.5

Nebraska @ IllinoisFri 8:00 PM ET
NEB -4.5
Price50¢
Model52.6%
Edge+2.6 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model NEB by +7.4, market +4.5; blended +5.5. Net PPA +0.26 vs -0.03.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ILL +4.5

New Mexico @ NevadaFri 9:00 PM ET
UNM -10.5
Price46¢
Model50.5%
Edge+4.0 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model UNM by +12.9, market +9.5; blended +10.7. Net PPA +0.29 vs -0.08.

Price source: Polymarket · market line NEV +9.5

TCU @ ArizonaFri 10:15 PM ET
ARIZ -8.5
Price49¢
Model53.0%
Edge+4.0 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model ARIZ by +10.9, market +9.0; blended +9.7. Net PPA +0.27 vs +0.14.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ARIZ -9

Saturday Nov 7 · 51 games

BYU @ UtahSat 12:00 PM ET
BYU ML
Price35¢
Model35.8%
Edge+0.8 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model BYU by -6.8, market -5.0; blended -5.6. Net PPA +0.21 vs +0.32.

Price source: Polymarket · market line UTAH -5

Clemson @ SyracuseSat 12:00 PM ET
CLEM -3.5
Price45¢
Model47.9%
Edge+2.9 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model CLEM by +3.0, market +2.5; blended +2.7. Net PPA -0.04 vs -0.05.

Price source: Polymarket · market line SYR +2.5

Florida State @ Boston CollegeSat 12:00 PM ET
BC ML
Price30¢
Model32.3%
Edge+2.3 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model BC by -7.3, market -7.0; blended -7.1. Net PPA -0.01 vs -0.03. Wind 15 mph.

Price source: Polymarket · market line BC +7

Iowa State @ BaylorSat 12:00 PM ET
BAY -10.5
Price48¢
Model51.4%
Edge+4.0 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model BAY by +13.0, market +10.0; blended +11.1. Net PPA +0.19 vs -0.04.

Price source: Polymarket · market line BAY -10

Texas @ MissouriSat 12:00 PM ET
TEX -3.5
Price46¢
Model49.0%
Edge+3.5 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model TEX by +4.3, market +2.5; blended +3.1. Net PPA +0.09 vs +0.19.

Price source: Polymarket · market line MIZ +2.5

Tulsa @ TulaneSat 12:00 PM ET
TLSA ML
Price53¢
Model54.7%
Edge+1.7 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model TLSA by +1.5, market +2.0; blended +1.8. Net PPA +0.11 vs -0.00.

Price source: Polymarket · market line TULN +2

UCLA @ MinnesotaSat 12:00 PM ET
UCLA -6.5
Price46¢
Model53.2%
Edge+6.7 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model UCLA by +11.9, market +5.5; blended +7.7. Net PPA +0.37 vs -0.01.

Price source: Polymarket · market line MINN +5.5

North Carolina @ UConnSat 12:00 PM ET
CONN ML
Price30¢
Model34.5%
Edge+4.0 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model CONN by -4.7, market -7.0; blended -6.2. Net PPA +0.14 vs +0.07.

Price source: Polymarket · market line CONN +7

Duke @ NC StateSat 12:30 PM ET
DUKE -5.5
Price47¢
Model50.6%
Edge+3.6 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model DUKE by +8.0, market +4.5; blended +5.7. Net PPA +0.22 vs +0.03.

Price source: Polymarket · market line NCSU +4.5

Maryland @ PurdueSat 12:30 PM ET
PUR -7.5
Price42¢
Model49.2%
Edge+7.7 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model PUR by +8.4, market +6.5; blended +7.2. Net PPA -0.08 vs -0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line PUR -6.5

Arkansas @ AuburnSat 12:45 PM ET
ARK ML
Price21¢
Model24.2%
Edge+3.2 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model ARK by -11.5, market -10.5; blended -10.9. Net PPA -0.17 vs -0.01. Wind 16 mph.

Price source: Polymarket · market line AUB -10.5

Old Dominion @ Coastal CarolinaSat 1:00 PM ET
CCU -7.5
Price47¢
Model52.7%
Edge+5.7 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model CCU by +11.4, market +7.0; blended +8.5. Net PPA -0.01 vs -0.16.

Price source: Polymarket · market line CCU -7

Oklahoma State @ Kansas StateSat 1:00 PM ET
KSU ML
Price35¢
Model38.6%
Edge+3.3 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model KSU by -4.4, market -4.5; blended -4.5. Net PPA +0.01 vs +0.09. Wind 15 mph.

Price source: BetOnline.ag · market line KSU +4.5

Georgia State @ App StateSat 2:30 PM ET
GAST ML
Price35¢
Model38.8%
Edge+3.4 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model GAST by -3.3, market -5.0; blended -4.4. Net PPA +0.11 vs +0.01.

Price source: MyBookie.ag · market line APP -5

Delaware @ Kennesaw StateSat 3:00 PM ET
DEL ML
Price53¢
Model54.2%
Edge+1.2 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model DEL by +1.0, market +2.0; blended +1.6. Net PPA +0.05 vs -0.04.

Price source: Polymarket · market line KENN +2

Texas A&M @ South CarolinaSat 3:00 PM ET
TA&M ML
Price28¢
Model35.3%
Edge+6.8 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model TA&M by -3.7, market -7.0; blended -5.8. Net PPA +0.04 vs +0.08.

Price source: Polymarket · market line SC -7

UL Monroe @ Arkansas StateSat 3:00 PM ET
ARST -14.5
Price51¢
Model56.1%
Edge+4.6 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model ARST by +21.3, market +14.5; blended +16.9. Net PPA -0.00 vs -0.25.

Price source: LowVig.ag · market line ARST -14.5

Alabama @ LSUSat 3:30 PM ET
ALA ML
Price34¢
Model37.0%
Edge+3.5 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model ALA by -4.5, market -5.5; blended -5.1. Net PPA +0.27 vs +0.33.

Price source: Polymarket · market line LSU -5.5

Cincinnati @ HoustonSat 3:30 PM ET
CIN ML
Price20¢
Model22.4%
Edge+1.9 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model CIN by -13.2, market -11.0; blended -11.8. Net PPA +0.08 vs +0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line HOU -11

Charlotte @ UABSat 3:30 PM ET
UAB -10.5
Price48¢
Model52.4%
Edge+4.4 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model UAB by +14.1, market +10.0; blended +11.4. Net PPA +0.02 vs -0.24.

Price source: Polymarket · market line UAB -10

Merrimack @ Wake ForestSat 3:30 PM ET

Non-FBS opponent; no rating.

Marshall @ Georgia SouthernSat 3:30 PM ET
MRSH ML
Price22¢
Model24.3%
Edge+1.8 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model MRSH by -12.3, market -10.0; blended -10.8. Net PPA -0.08 vs +0.10.

Price source: Polymarket · market line GASO -10

Oregon @ Ohio StateSat 3:30 PM ET
OSU -7.5
Price48¢
Model54.6%
Edge+6.1 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model OSU by +13.5, market +7.0; blended +9.3. Net PPA +0.28 vs +0.07.

Price source: Polymarket · market line OSU -7

Penn State @ WashingtonSat 3:30 PM ET
PSU +2.5
Price50¢
Model53.8%
Edge+3.3 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model PSU by +0.8, market -2.0; blended -1.0. Net PPA +0.07 vs +0.12.

Price source: Polymarket · market line WASH -2

Temple @ NavySat 3:30 PM ET
TEM ML
Price28¢
Model30.8%
Edge+3.3 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model TEM by -8.3, market -7.5; blended -7.8. Net PPA -0.01 vs -0.01.

Price source: Polymarket · market line NAVY -7.5

Western Kentucky @ Middle TennesseeSat 3:30 PM ET
MTSU ML
Price50¢
Model52.6%
Edge+3.1 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model MTSU by +1.0, market +1.0; blended +1.0. Net PPA -0.05 vs -0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line MTSU -1

UCF @ KansasSat 3:45 PM ET
KU -3.5
Price44¢
Model46.9%
Edge+2.9 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model KU by +1.9, market +2.5; blended +2.3. Net PPA +0.03 vs +0.00.

Price source: Polymarket · market line KU -2.5

Louisiana Tech @ TroySat 4:00 PM ET
TROY ML
Price36¢
Model36.3%
Edge+0.1 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model TROY by -7.1, market -4.5; blended -5.4. Net PPA -0.00 vs +0.18.

Price source: MyBookie.ag · market line TROY +4.5

Missouri State @ Florida InternationalSat 4:00 PM ET
FIU -5.5
Price50¢
Model51.5%
Edge+1.6 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model FIU by +9.1, market +4.5; blended +6.1. Net PPA -0.04 vs -0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line FIU -4.5

Northern Illinois @ San José StateSat 4:00 PM ET
SJSU -10.5
Price48¢
Model55.1%
Edge+7.1 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model SJSU by +17.1, market +10.0; blended +12.5. Net PPA +0.02 vs -0.34.

Price source: Polymarket · market line SJSU -10

Rice @ North TexasSat 4:00 PM ET
RICE +16.5
Price47¢
Model48.0%
Edge+1.0 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model RICE by -18.7, market -16.5; blended -17.3. Net PPA -0.13 vs +0.23.

Price source: Polymarket · market line UNT -16.5

Rutgers @ WisconsinSat 4:15 PM ET
WIS -17.5
Price46¢
Model50.1%
Edge+4.1 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model WIS by +18.6, market +17.0; blended +17.5. Net PPA +0.12 vs -0.18.

Price source: Polymarket · market line WIS -17

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi StateSat 4:15 PM ET
MSST -3.5
Price48¢
Model56.5%
Edge+8.6 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model MSST by +11.7, market +3.0; blended +6.1. Net PPA -0.05 vs -0.09.

Price source: Polymarket · market line MSST -3

South Alabama @ LouisianaSat 5:00 PM ET
UL -7.5
Price53¢
Model56.1%
Edge+3.1 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model UL by +12.5, market +8.5; blended +9.9. Net PPA +0.13 vs -0.08.

Price source: Polymarket · market line UL -8.5

Boise State @ Colorado StateSat 6:00 PM ET
BOIS -18.5
Price46¢
Model50.9%
Edge+4.4 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model BOIS by +21.4, market +17.5; blended +18.9. Net PPA +0.25 vs -0.09.

Price source: Polymarket · market line CSU +17.5

Kentucky @ TennesseeSat 6:15 PM ET
TENN -7.5
Price44¢
Model48.7%
Edge+4.7 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model TENN by +7.9, market +6.5; blended +7.0. Net PPA +0.23 vs +0.15.

Price source: Polymarket · market line TENN -6.5

Sam Houston @ Jacksonville StateSat 7:00 PM ET
JXST -17.5
Price48¢
Model50.4%
Edge+2.4 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model JXST by +18.8, market +17.0; blended +17.6. Net PPA +0.10 vs -0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line JXST -17

Air Force @ ArmySat 7:30 PM ET
AFA +2.5
Price46¢
Model48.0%
Edge+2.0 pts
Confidence●○○○○

Model AFA by -3.8, market -3.0; blended -3.3. Net PPA +0.10 vs +0.03.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ARMY -3

Colorado @ Arizona StateSat 7:30 PM ET
ASU -3.5
Price46¢
Model51.8%
Edge+5.3 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model ASU by +6.4, market +3.0; blended +4.2. Net PPA -0.01 vs -0.01.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ASU -3

Iowa @ NorthwesternSat 7:30 PM ET
NU -3.5
Price44¢
Model48.8%
Edge+4.3 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model NU by +4.0, market +2.5; blended +3.0. Net PPA +0.28 vs +0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line NU -2.5

Louisville @ Georgia TechSat 7:30 PM ET
LOU -14.5
Price50¢
Model52.1%
Edge+2.1 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model LOU by +16.8, market +14.5; blended +15.3. Net PPA +0.25 vs -0.09.

Price source: Polymarket · market line GT +14.5

Miami @ Notre DameSat 7:30 PM ET
MIA ML
Price35¢
Model38.1%
Edge+3.1 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model MIA by -3.2, market -5.5; blended -4.7. Net PPA +0.34 vs +0.40.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ND -5.5

Michigan State @ MichiganSat 7:30 PM ET
MSU ML
Price18¢
Model20.2%
Edge+2.7 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model MSU by -12.8, market -13.0; blended -12.9. Net PPA -0.20 vs +0.16.

Price source: Polymarket · market line MICH -13

Georgia @ Ole MissSat 7:30 PM ET
MISS +2.5
Price42¢
Model47.0%
Edge+5.0 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model MISS by -4.0, market -3.5; blended -3.7. Net PPA +0.10 vs +0.28.

Price source: Polymarket · market line MISS +3.5

Oklahoma @ FloridaSat 7:45 PM ET
OU ML
Price32¢
Model35.1%
Edge+3.6 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model OU by -4.9, market -6.5; blended -5.9. Net PPA +0.04 vs +0.13.

Price source: Polymarket · market line FLA -6.5

Liberty @ New Mexico StateSat 8:00 PM ET
LIB -17
Price52¢
Model54.3%
Edge+2.4 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model LIB by +21.8, market +17.0; blended +18.7. Net PPA +0.30 vs -0.10.

Price source: LowVig.ag · market line NMSU +17

Fresno State @ Utah StateSat 9:30 PM ET
FRES -3.5
Price44¢
Model53.4%
Edge+9.4 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model FRES by +9.1, market +2.5; blended +4.8. Net PPA +0.07 vs -0.02.

Price source: Polymarket · market line USU +2.5

Hawai'i @ UTEPSat 9:30 PM ET
HAW -10.5
Price46¢
Model49.7%
Edge+3.7 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model HAW by +12.0, market +9.5; blended +10.4. Net PPA -0.12 vs -0.36.

Price source: Polymarket · market line UTEP +9.5

West Virginia @ Texas TechSat 9:30 PM ET
TTU -17.5
Price47¢
Model51.0%
Edge+4.0 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model TTU by +19.5, market +17.0; blended +17.9. Net PPA +0.17 vs -0.08.

Price source: Polymarket · market line TTU -17

Texas State @ Oregon StateSat 10:30 PM ET
ORST -7.5
Price42¢
Model48.5%
Edge+6.0 pts
Confidence●●●○○

Model ORST by +7.7, market +6.5; blended +6.9. Net PPA +0.16 vs +0.10.

Price source: Polymarket · market line ORST -6.5

Wyoming @ UNLVSat 10:30 PM ET
UNLV -6.5
Price49¢
Model52.7%
Edge+3.7 pts
Confidence●●○○○

Model UNLV by +10.4, market +6.0; blended +7.6. Net PPA +0.03 vs +0.01.

Price source: Polymarket · market line UNLV -6